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Lewis vs. Nascimento picks, predictions and odds

Despite being 39 years old, Derrick Lewis’ strength and power remain undefeated. Find out why the Houston native should fare well in the latest UFC Fight Night main event with our Lewis vs. Nascimento bets to read.

May 9, 2024 • 9:00 AM ET

• 4 minutes reading

Derrick Lewis will take on Rodrigo Nascimento in the main event of the UFC Fight Night betting event on Saturday. This is the 10th main event Lewis has headlined, and while his best days are behind him, he is still the No. 12 heavyweight contender.

Despite losing four of his last five fights, UFC odds have Lewis as a -154 favorite against Nascimento, who is riding a three-fight winning streak. Here are my top free UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento picks and predictions for May 11 from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.

Lewis vs Nascimento prediction and pick

Analysis of the battle

After 28 fights in the UFC, we know exactly what we’re getting with the “Black Beast” Derrick Lewis. Lewis has no skill or speed and his ground game is virtually non-existent, but he is huge, incredibly strong and still one of the hardest hitters in MMA.

Although Lewis has only one win in his last five fights, he has generally managed to beat mediocre opponents. He defeated Marcos Rogério de Lima in 33 seconds last year as an underdog and now faces a top-15 heavyweight in Nascimento, who isn’t as good as his winning streak suggests.

Although Nascimento has won three in a row, all of those victories came against unranked foes and none of them were impressive. He had split decision wins over Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser in that span, and in his most recent win he stuffed all three of his takedown attempts while being defeated 79-70 by Don’Tale Mayes.

If Nascimento can’t finish those guys, he probably won’t be able to put away Lewis, who played 25 minutes against Jailton Almeida in November. Even if Nascimento can secure a takedown, Lewis is too big and strong to hold or control on the mat.

Lewis should be able to keep this fight going long enough to find Nascimento’s chin.

Best best analysis

Lewis holds the UFC record with 14 knockout victories, and his last four victories have come that way. Even at 39 years old, Lewis has dynamite in his hands and the ability to explode at close range.

Although Nascimento has only been knocked out once in his career, he has never faced an opponent anywhere near as dangerous as Lewis. In fact, his only KO loss came at the hands of Chris Daukaus in 2020, and Lewis pinned Daukaus in the opening round two years ago.

If you’re backing Lewis to win here, it makes sense to bet on him to win by KO/TKO.

Lewis vs. Nascimento Odds

Method of victory Lewis Nascimento
To win outright -155 +135
To win by KO/TKO -125 +380
To win with points +1,550 +1,250
To win by submission +1,650 +350
To draw +2,500 +2,500

Opportunities from May 8.

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Lewis vs. Nascimento story from the tape

Lewis Nascimento
39 Age 31
6-foot-3 Height 6-foot-3
264 pounds Weight 261 pounds
79 inches Range 80 inches
27-12 (22 KO) File 11-1 (2 KO)

Not intended for use in MA.
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